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Fantasy Outlook: Week One

Alex Wahl returns with his new “Fantasy Outlook” series. Listen to the man and get the tips necessary to win! Check out this article for the first fantasy forecast of the season!

Leverage measures how important a given situation is during a game (relative to the start of the game). The start of a game is defined as a Leverage of 1.0, a neutral situation. As the game progresses, the Leverage can fluctuate based on the inning, the number of outs, the runners on base, and the difference between the two teams' runs scored so far.

Leverage is the ratio between how much a single run scored changes the expected probability of winning in the current situation and how much a run would have changed the expected probability of winning at the very beginning of the game.

For example, if a run scored in the eighth inning increases the probability of winning by 20%, while a run at the start of the game increases it by 10%, then the Leverage of the situation in the eighth inning is 20%/10% = 2.00 Leverage.

Permanent link to Stat of the Week: Leverage

APR, or Adjusted Pitching Runs, measures the number of runs a pitcher prevented as compared to a league-average pitcher in a neutral park in the same number of innings. Derived from the pitching component of linear weights, or pitching runs, APR includes an adjustment for ballparks and is based on all runs allowed, not just the earned runs.

APR = L x IP - (R/PF)

Where "L" is the league average of runs per inning and "PF" is the park factor for the pitcher's home park.

Permanent link to Stat of the Week: APR

PSP is a measure designed by Nate Silver to indicate a team's success in the postseason in divisional play. PSP assigns points to playoff teams as follows:

  • 3 points for making the playoffs
  • 3 points for winning the League Division Series (LDS)
  • 4 points for winning the League Championship Series (LCS)
  • 4 points for winning the World Series
  • 1 point for each postseason win
  • -1 point for each postseason loss

The highest possible PSP is 25, for a team that sweeps through all eleven postseason games, while the lowest is 0, for a team that is swept in the first round.

Permanent link to Stat of the Week: Playoff Success Points (PSP)