Leverage measures how important a given situation is during a game (relative to the start of the game). The start of a game is defined as a Leverage of 1.0, a neutral situation. As the game progresses, the Leverage can fluctuate based on the inning, the number of outs, the runners on base, and the difference between the two teams' runs scored so far.
Leverage is the ratio between how much a single run scored changes the expected probability of winning in the current situation and how much a run would have changed the expected probability of winning at the very beginning of the game.
For example, if a run scored in the eighth inning increases the probability of winning by 20%, while a run at the start of the game increases it by 10%, then the Leverage of the situation in the eighth inning is 20%/10% = 2.00 Leverage.
APR, or Adjusted Pitching Runs, measures the number of runs a pitcher prevented as compared to a league-average pitcher in a neutral park in the same number of innings. Derived from the pitching component of linear weights, or pitching runs, APR includes an adjustment for ballparks and is based on all runs allowed, not just the earned runs.
APR = L x IP - (R/PF)
Where "L" is the league average of runs per inning and "PF" is the park factor for the pitcher's home park.
RA, or Run Average, is the number of runs (earned and unearned) allowed by a pitcher or team per 9 innings. Considering all runs allowed by a pitcher is more desirable from a predictive standpoint because it adjusts the arbitrary format of official scoring and the attribution, the problems of reconstructing an inning to determine unearned runs, and the small number of errors presently compared to the past that would normally be seen when measuring pitcher success through just an "earned runs" method. A pitcher good at preventing earned runs tends to be good at preventing unearned runs.
All baseball fans should know about it! It’s the one and only Baseballism! A bit different than what we normally do, but as things reopen, this is definitely the store you want to be in!
Credited to the Greek mathematician Pythagoras for describing the sides of a right triangle. Around the year 1980, Bill James, American baseball writer and statistician, discovered that you can tell how many games a team will win, based on its runs scored and runs allowed using a formula containing "three squares" like the pythagorean formula.
Winning % = (runs scored)^2 / [(runs scored)^2 + (runs allowed)^2]
The winning percentage is, of course, approximate and can be more accurate by adjusting the exponent. This adjustment is known as "Pythagenport", named after Clay Davenport who used logarithmic formulas to estimate the adjustment exponent based on runs scored and allowed. Later revisions to this method have been made.
The Dodgers fell to the Astros’ cheating for the last few seasons, costing them what could have been monumental victories. But maybe they can win something after all… Continue to read to find out how!
PSP is a measure designed by Nate Silver to indicate a team's success in the postseason in divisional play. PSP assigns points to playoff teams as follows:
- 3 points for making the playoffs
- 3 points for winning the League Division Series (LDS)
- 4 points for winning the League Championship Series (LCS)
- 4 points for winning the World Series
- 1 point for each postseason win
- -1 point for each postseason loss
The highest possible PSP is 25, for a team that sweeps through all eleven postseason games, while the lowest is 0, for a team that is swept in the first round.
Happy June fans! Baseball may be right around the corner soon, so let’s take a trip down memory lane with Alex’s picks for the five best games of 2019!
Part two of the Hits and Misses series is here! We will continue to examine the best and worst signings of the decade!
In 1971, these two players accomplished something never seen before (or again) in Major League Baseball. Read this article to find out what it was!
We at The Bullpen would like to recognize all the heroes who made the ultimate sacrifice for our freedom, including the ability to watch our favorite sport. Baseball may not be here yet, but let’s breakdown the 2020 season plan! Happy Memorial Day!
The hot stove season is one of the most exciting times of baseball, as fans eagerly await where the next superstar free agent will land and for how much money. This two-part series will examine the best and worst signings of the decade!
MLV, or Marginal Lineup Value, is a statistic that measures a player's offensive production in runs above an average offensive player. MLV takes a theoretical team of nine average hitters, replaces one of them with a player we want to measure, gives him the same percentage of the team's total plate appearances (PA) as he had on his real team, and computes how many more (or fewer) runs the team would score as a result of the switch.
A positive MLV indicates that the player is an above-average hitter, and a negative MLV indicates the player is a below-average hitter. For example, a player with a 42.0 MLV means that the player would have produced 42 more runs for an average team than a league-average hitter would have had in the same amount of playing time. MLV is park-adjusted and calibrated to league average.
The world is changing, and fast. It’s been changing quickly since the rise of technology, and later, the inception of social media. But now more than ever, it feels as … Continue Reading “Zooming” Into a New Era of Fan Interaction in Baseball